The compute trade, unwound
Who actually pays when GPU depreciation catches up to the balance sheet — and why the second-order names are the real trade.
GPU depreciation · est.3yr▾
Utilization gapwide▴
Refresh cycle▂▃▅▆▇▇▆▅
Near catalysts2
The compute trade was the easiest call of the decade — right up until the depreciation schedule came due. The tape is still pricing the buildout; it has barely started pricing the bill.
When the accounting catches up, the value doesn't vanish — it rotates. The names that benefit are one step removed from the hardware, and the market hasn't drawn the line yet.
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This brief is supported by — Meridian Capital